Political Storm Ahead? No-Confidence Move Gathers Pace Against Gandapur?

LAHORE (RNN TV) — The recent reallocation of reserved seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly has raised some intriguing questions about party dynamics.

For instance, despite only having six elected members, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) secured nine reserved seats. Similarly, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) garnered 12 reserved seats with just seven elected members, while the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) obtained seven reserved seats despite having only four elected representatives.

In the KP Assembly, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) holds a dominant position, with Ali Amin Gandapur at the helm. Gandapur has secured the backing of 58 Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) members and 34 independents — most of whom are PTI-supported candidates who have not formally joined the SIC. Interestingly, Gandapur himself took the oath as Chief Minister as an independent, without formally joining the SIC.

While PTI leaders like Rana Sanaullah and Khawaja Asif have dismissed the likelihood of a no-confidence motion against Gandapur, the opposition is increasingly gaining ground. The opposition alliance now commands 53 members in the assembly, fueling speculation that a no-confidence vote could soon be on the horizon.

To remove a chief minister, the opposition can either bring a no-confidence motion under Article 136 of the constitution or the governor can ask the CM to seek a vote of confidence under Article 130(7) if the governor believes the CM no longer holds a majority. In the case of a no-confidence motion, the opposition would need to prove its majority, whereas if the governor initiates the vote, the government must demonstrate its continued majority.

For the no-confidence vote to succeed, the opposition needs at least 73 members — 20 more than their current strength. To achieve this, they could aim to sway the independents or seek support from SIC members. A key factor in this strategy is the Supreme Court’s October 2024 ruling, which allows the votes of defecting members to count, even if they are later disqualified. If such members are disqualified, by-elections would be required. However, if the opposition targets independents, by-elections would not be necessary.

Despite the opposition’s potential strategy, it remains a tough challenge. Of the 34 independents, only a handful are politically aligned with other parties like the Awami National Party (ANP) or JUI-F. Most are either PTI loyalists or new members who have no prior affiliation with other parties. Given their background, it would be challenging to persuade them to break ranks with the PTI.

Moreover, the 58 PTI-backed SIC members are predominantly long-time PTI supporters, many of whom have been with the party since its early days. Some won their first elections as PTI candidates or affiliates, making it even more unlikely they would abandon the party in such turbulent times.

Despite the political instability, PTI still enjoys significant public support in KP, and any member defecting would likely face significant political risks in their constituencies.

Source: Web Desk